Forecasting China's Future

Chinaâs future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that thus far so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of Chinaâs future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains â political economic environmental and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine Chinaâs future direction this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political economic environmental and international relations issues in China and Asia as well as to readers in business and government. . Language: English